Listening to Donald Sutherland’s audio lectures on
Napoleonic France, I’m struck by the way in which different time horizons
influence the way we evaluate the overall impact of revolutions on human
development. Should we thank Napoleon
for burying the French Revolution or condemn him for reviving the notion of
royalty? Was the French Revolution a
good thing or a bad thing? Taken as a
whole, did this great event, this frenzy of social innovation and radical
ideas, help people or hurt people?
By analogy, I think of a recent trip to visit New York City
for the weekend. Was that a good idea or
a bad one? If you had asked me a two
weeks before my wife had bought the tickets to go on this short tourist
excursion, I would have said this was a bad decision: the trip would be short, tiring, and
expensive. In order to keep the ticket
cost low, my wife had even felt bound to accept an itinerary with a
Philadelphia layover between Chicago and New York. If you asked me the night before I got up at
4:00am to catch our plane, my opinion of the decision would have become ever
more negative. Even ignoring the cost of transporting five people to the
country’s most expensive city, how could many hours of round-trip travel
possibly justify or outweigh 36 hours of tourism?
Sadly, my opinion of the decision deteriorated yet again
when we landed in Philadelphia, waited on a delayed plane, and eventually
learned that our second flight had been cancelled altogether, forcing us to
rent a car and drive the rest of the way to New York. All told, we had spent about 14 hours to
reach our destination, and would need to leave in less than two days.
But different time horizons lead one to radically different
appraisals of the same facts. And nowhere
was this more in evidence than when I found my children standing in awe of the
electric magnificence of Times Square, sitting on a fence in sprawling Central
Square, driving past the historic Apollo Theatre or Guggenheim Museum, or circumnavigating
the whole island of Manhattan Island for the first time in any of our
lives. Truly, as we cruised past Ellis
Island and the Statue of Liberty, I had no doubt whatsoever that this decision
to land in New York was a masterstroke of life wisdom and good planning. When else would my Tunisian mother-in-law
ever see something so quintessentially and recognizably American? When else would my young children see New
York with such youthful exuberance?
If the reader will bear with me just a little bit longer, the
story of this decision to go on a New York getaway may be scrutinized from just
a few more vantage points. On the way
home, our plane from Philadelphia was delayed again. We waited hours before leaving the city and
only arrived at home after midnight.
Trying to get my grumpy second-grader ready for school was torture for
both of us. Surely, the decision to go
to New York had been a blunder, pure and simple.
How will I ultimately appraise our trip to the Big
Apple? It’s impossible to say. One thing seems clear: there will be no ultimate appraisal. History is relative. Past events can only be measured by our
present circumstances and current psychology.
The decision to go to New York was a complex, or at least had complex
outcomes. Soon, the credit card bill
will come due, and the trip may then eventually be classified as a minor
consumer tragedy rather than an innocent blunder. Going on the trip meant all sorts of petty trade-offs,
sacrifices, and what economists call opportunity costs. By going, one son missed an important soccer
tournament, another stayed up so late that he have done poorly on statewide
exam, my wife failed to work on a research proposal, and I racked up enough
debt that it’s quite possible I’ll cancel a larger trip I had hoped to make in
the Spring.
But the fascinating thing about time horizons is that they
can be broadened almost indefinitely, or at least until our deaths. I can
imagine that in ten years things the decision to go to New York may look very
different once more. In ten years, will
we stare at these happy photos of this little family adventure and be grateful
that we took an ailing mother-in-law on a last trip? Will be content to know that we took such
family trips while our children were still in their formative years?
I’m listening to another set of lectures. These are on the concept of “Big History.”
They make the point that the human story can be told holistically, and from the
beginning, from a biological, geological, or even astrological
perspective. The French Revolution should
mean a lot to us now, but it’s not exactly clear whether the French Revolution
helped or hurt people in the long run. And
the lens of history can be adjusted indefinitely. We can ask different questions from different
vantage points. Did the French Revolution
help people or hurt people? It is better
to ask that question from the point of view of those who lived through it, or
is it better to ask that question from the point of view of those who lived
with its long-term consequences? Or
should we try to broaden our perspective to level of a bigger history? If I analyze our decision to go to New York
City, I try to achieve a bigger history by imaging how I will feel about things
on my own deathbed, on the brink of eternity.
When I do this, New York seems like a wonderful decision. Like Gogol, I see myself high up in the sky,
looking down from the heavens at a troika, or at least a Central Park horse
carriage. Within it, there’s just me, my
sons, my wife, and my mother-in-law. Whither are we going? To Times Square, all
together.
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